Foreclosure trend not catching on in southern N.J.
Press of Atlantic City
Published: Friday, September 22, 2006
The U.S. real estate market is showing another sign of heading south, while this region remains reluctant to follow.
As home prices skyrocketed the past couple of years, economists worried that buyers might not be able to keep up with their big mortgage payments if the economy slowed.
They repeatedly warned that buyers using adjustable rate mortgages, often sold with artificially low initial "teaser" rates, might find themselves in the hole if (or when) interest rates went up.
Now that house prices have started dropping in many areas of the nation and rates have risen a little, the watch is on for signs of distress among homebuyers. Nothing impairs one's ability to consume, and keep the economy growing, like taking a bath on one's biggest purchase.
The first alarm bells have sounded.
Last week, the Mortgage Bankers of America reported that foreclosures on adjustable-rate mortgages rose 29 percent to a four-year high in the second quarter of this year from the previous quarter.
Foreclosures are recorded when a lender tries to seize property for nonpayment of the loan or the overloaded borrower simply walks away from it.
RealtyTrac, which maintains a national database on foreclosure properties, reported the same day that they increased 24 percent for all loans just from July to August.
How far this trend goes will depend on a confluence of factors, including stagnating household incomes and rising expenditures on energy, property taxes and insurance. If energy prices and interest rates moderate, we probably won't see a lot of people losing their homes.
In southern New Jersey, an increase in distressed homeowners is even less likely.
RealtyTrac's figures for the region show that foreclosures in Atlantic County actually fell 19 percent from the first to second quarters of this year. In Cape May County, the drop was 18 percent, in Cumberland County 48 percent, and in Ocean County the decline was 37 percent.
Economist Richard Perniciaro, director of the Center for Regional and Business Research at Atlantic Cape Community College, said strong demand for housing in the region is keeping the market in better shape than most.
"The people who are buying are people who have been coming here all their lives and they didn't look anywhere else," he said. "So we have a pretty sure flow of demand, and that will only get bigger as the boomers retire. New Jersey might have the most Baby Boomers of any state."
Home prices in the region were up 15 percent in the second quarter, a smaller increase but still an increase, he said.
"What really would cause our market to falter would be if people wait six or eight months to buy," Perniciaro said.
But even that would be temporary.
"People just want to be here," he said. "They've planned for 10 years to buy into here."